NYTimes.com > Opinion

What They Did Lsat FallBy PAUL KRUGMAN
(also available on pkarchive.org)

Published: August 19, 2005

By running for the U.S. Senate, Katherine Harris, Florida's former
secretary of state, has stirred up some ugly memories. And that's a
good thing, because those memories remain relevant. There was at
least as much electoral malfeasance in 2004 as there was in 2000,
even if it didn't change the outcome. And the next election may be
worse.

In his recent book "Steal This Vote" - a very judicious work,
despite its title - Andrew Gumbel, a U.S. correspondent for the
British newspaper The Independent, provides the best overview I've
seen of the 2000 Florida vote. And he documents the simple truth:
"Al Gore won the 2000 presidential election."

Two different news media consortiums reviewed Florida's ballots;
both found that a full manual recount would have given the election
to Mr. Gore. This was true despite a host of efforts by state and
local officials to suppress likely Gore votes, most notably Ms.
Harris's "felon purge," which disenfranchised large numbers of valid
voters.

But few Americans have heard these facts. Perhaps journalists have
felt that it would be divisive to cast doubt on the Bush
administration's legitimacy. If so, their tender concern for the
nation's feelings has gone for naught: Cindy Sheehan's supporters
are camped in Crawford, and America is more bitterly divided than
ever.

Meanwhile, the whitewash of what happened in Florida in 2000 showed
that election-tampering carries no penalty, and political operatives
have acted accordingly. For example, in 2002 the Republican Party in
New Hampshire hired a company to jam Democratic and union phone
banks on Election Day.

And what about 2004?

Mr. Gumbel throws cold water on those who take the discrepancy
between the exit polls and the final result as evidence of a stolen
election. (I told you it's a judicious book.) He also seems, on
first reading, to play down what happened in Ohio. But the theme of
his book is that America has a long, bipartisan history of dirty
elections.

He told me that he wasn't brushing off the serious problems in Ohio,
but that "this is what American democracy typically looks like,
especially in a presidential election in a battleground state that
is controlled substantially by one party."

So what does U.S. democracy look like? There have been two
Democratic reports on Ohio in 2004, one commissioned by
Representative John Conyers Jr., the other by the Democratic
National Committee.

The D.N.C. report is very cautious: "The purpose of this
investigation," it declares, "was not to challenge or question the
results of the election in any way." It says there is no evidence
that votes were transferred away from John Kerry - but it does
suggest that many potential Kerry votes were suppressed. Although
the Conyers report is less cautious, it stops far short of claiming
that the wrong candidate got Ohio's electoral votes.

But both reports show that votes were suppressed by long lines at
polling places - lines caused by inadequate numbers of voting
machines - and that these lines occurred disproportionately in areas
likely to vote Democratic. Both reports also point to problems
involving voters who were improperly forced to cast provisional
votes, many of which were discarded.

The Conyers report goes further, highlighting the blatant
partisanship of election officials. In particular, the behavior of
Ohio's secretary of state, Kenneth Blackwell - who supervised the
election while serving as co-chairman of the Bush-Cheney campaign in
Ohio - makes Ms. Harris's actions in 2000 seem mild by comparison.

And then there are the election night stories. Warren County locked
down its administration building and barred public observers from
the vote-counting, citing an F.B.I. warning of a terrorist threat.
But the F.B.I. later denied issuing any such warning. Miami County
reported that voter turnout was an improbable 98.55 percent of
registered voters. And so on.

We aren't going to rerun the last three elections. But what about
the future?

Our current political leaders would suffer greatly if either house
of Congress changed hands in 2006, or if the presidency changed
hands in 2008. The lids would come off all the simmering scandals,
from the selling of the Iraq war to profiteering by politically
connected companies. The Republicans will be strongly tempted to
make sure that they win those elections by any means necessary. And
everything we've seen suggests that they will give in to that
temptation. 

E-mail: krugman@nytimes.com